Xiang Ji’s Bookshelf

Here is a magical date from Mad Money’s Jim Cramer: the housing market bottoms at the third quarter next year (see Cramer after 10 seconds).

Last year, Cramer called that Google’s stock would peak at $750 at the time when the stock was trading at $600. It did went up to close to $750 and then turned south. Some good bets, you’d think.

Cramer is in the entertainment business, of course. Or more precisely, in the professional guessing entertainment business. Some criticize Cramer making too many bets and among them many bad ones. But isn’t this the case with almost everyone? A bet is a bet, no matter whether it’s based on judgments or not.

Before anyone can call a bottom in the housing market, the mess at the two giant GSE (freddie and fannie) has to be cleaned up. Banks have collectively written off roughly half of their bad assets, and you can see how much exposure each bank still has on its books. But it is less clear about the GSEs. Maybe it is still too early to project a housing market bottom.